Not too bad so far...

As you all know, I was short in this market from almost the very top. I enjoyed a nice move, I did save up some as you noticed that I have decrease my position by 50%. I am basically playing on gains right now so I definitely feel no rush from any upmoves in the markets.

My stop orders are right at my entry points (except for DXD that is a little further) but I still have half of my gains in the basket and it feels good.

Anyway, as I was looking a very high speculative stock, I look for small caps on the French markets with higher-than-usual volumes. I think I found one.

HUBWOO.COM. (HBW). It seems that we could be at the beginning of a crazy bull move after 10 years of basically of pure downtrend. This things just kept on going down. Volumes were weak throughout the past decade but since the end of 2008, this stock started to show some crazy volumes. I think HBW could be a buy if 49 cents get broken up. The future will tell.

Ps: We need to be careful of a possible double top given the RSI. Volumes are not in favor of that but this is why the 49 cents level is very important. We'll see if it gets broken.

My 3 speculative stocks on the watch...

My 3 speculative stocks on the watch list deal with the French market. Sorry for my American fellows. I'll try to give you some later on.

• SINCLAIR PHARMA (SPH) => Looking for an entry at 37 cents. Volumes are showing some improvements and increasing on upmoves. They increased significantly when the stock broke above the 30-week MA and some major resistances. The RSI is showing a nice uptrend.

• ST DUPONT (DPT) => Entry at 19 cents even though it could go down to 16 cents. Volumes are OK for the last several weeks. However when you compare the past weeks' volumes with the ones from several years ago, DPT is not that bullish. Careful with that one.

• THOMSON (TMS) => Volumes are wonderful for that one. Volumes are UP when stock broke above 30-week MA and volumes are down on downmoves. RSI on a nice uptrend. BE CAREFUL though, TMS failed to breakout on an inverted head-and-shoulder. This is kinda scary. Be very cautious. An entrey could be around 78 cents on a highly speculative play. The best play would be to enter it if there is a breakout above 1.50€ on huge volumes. I know it's almost 100% above but that is if you want to play it safe.

PS: Obviously all these plays will depend on how the overall market moves. I don't expect a massive W-shape bottom on the major indices. I think the 2009 March lows won't be seen for some time. It could obviously happen (I don't have a crystal ball) but I am not in favor of that scenario.
These plays are highly speculative so an appropriate position size should be considered. We would entry them only if I believe the markets could resume their uptrend.

What a nasty week for the bulls...

What a bull trap on Thursday. I even thought this green candle was nasty for the bears. Hence I covered half of my positions. Half only because I thought that the bears could take it still. It was good to see that.

Here is the weekly chart and it doesn't look too good. Next week should print red as the Doji candle is followed by a nasty red candle.

See that level on the RSI. I expect it to land on that support. I'll cover my shorts there (if we get there). I believe that it is a 50% chance of either boucing up or breaking down. I won't take the risks. The Bullish divergence are there and cannot be let aside.

Watch out.

Half BX4 sold @ 59.6€ but got caught with DXD...

I sold half the positions on the BX4. I sold it for 59.6€ however Wall Street was closed and I had to wait the higher open.

My DXD line remains the same.

I decided this morning to cut half of the position because of the "double top" (M) support indices are on. We could bounce back up a little. I'd rather take some euros off the table.

Have a good day.

Paul Tudor Jones - 3rd quarter market letter - He likes gold

You'll get the "full" market letter on the link below. Open a free account and you're good to go.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/21753600/Tudor-Third-Quarter-Letter


Hereafter an article taken from "The New York Times"

"Seeing Next Boom, Tudor Goes for Gold

October 28, 2009, 2:24 pm

Those who doubt an economic recovery is under way may want to check out the latest investor letter from Paul Tudor Jones. The legendary hedge fund manager of Tudor Investment sees a wave of money flowing into the markets, pushing up stocks, commodities and other assets in what he terms “The Great Liquidity Race.”

Winning the race, Mr. Jones posits, will be gold, emerging-market equities denominated in local currencies and commodity-related stocks. “I have never been a gold bug,” he says in the letter. “It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And that time is now.” (A link to the entire letter is below.)

The gold bug has caught several big hedge fund managers this year including John Paulson of Paulson & Company, Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors and David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, who believe enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus that has been injected into the global economy will eventually result in hyperinflation.

For now, however, Mr. Jones believes the stimulus will lead to strong growth through at least the first half of next year, but could drastically slow in the second half.

Tudor Investment, which manages roughly $11 billion, is up nearly 15 percent this year, after posting gains of 2.3 percent in September, according to the letter. Other large hedge fund managers also scored big gains last month, including the Och-Ziff Capital Management Group (2.39 percent), SAC Capital Management (2.47 percent), Moore Capital Management (3.8 percent), Capital Fund Management (6.29 percent) and the Citadel Investment Group (4.33 percent).

– Zachery Kouwe"


Ps: PTJ said last quarter that he was expecting a correction in stocks before entering the markets. Did he make up his mind?! Now he thinks stockmarkets are a buy just because of assets' inflation. If so, he is probably kicking himself in the foot given the weak exposure he has in the markets...something like $200 millions on a $11 billions fund. He probably took him some time to be fully exposed because you don't buy $11 billions worth of stocks in the 1st 30 minutes of the trading session.

1929 Great depressoin - Nice report on French TV Arte

I just watched this report on the great depression. It is in French, sorry for my American fellows (or maybe other non-French followers), but it is full of information about the market crash as well as the depression. There is also some nice comments about the Monetary policy, the Politics in general (Roosevelt, the Nazi's, etc.), the fall of Germany when Americans got their "funding" money back into the US.

It is really worth the watch I think. You can see that it'll be on TV next Saturday or next Tuesday. I advise you to have a look at it.

Summary of our positions....

. BX4 bought at 52.9€ => As of 28 Oct. 2009, BX4=59.25€
. DXD bought at $32.9 => As of 28 Oct. 2009, DXD= $34
. Long USD/JPY @ 91 => As of 28 Oct. 2009, USD/JPY= 90.85

BX4 and DXD are moving nicely along with our strategy.

USD/JPY was also doing nicely before correcting rapidly. I'm not that worried. I want to play this potential double bottom (W) seen on the weekly chart. I said weekly chart. It'll take weeks to get where I want it to be. I'll be patient and wait.

I'd like to thank everyone who is looking at this blog regularly. Some of you leave comments, some others don't but have a look at what's going here and I highly appreciate it.
Lucky I am to be back in a "student" mode as I have more time to post and express myself. I hope you find the information you need/want.

By the way, as a student, I'll need an internship (better yet, a job) in a couple of months from now =). Feel free to let me know if you're interested in a young Frenchman like me. =)

Have a good night.